In these fraught times, I need to continually remind myself that long term, in spite of market conditions, there are a handful of investors who do outperform over time.
Here are some results from a little mini project I carried out a few days ago on outperformance. It’s graphics heavy, so it’s easier on me to host on this webpage.
The US SEC requires asset managers with over $150 mn under management to file and publicly disclose a quarterly 13F form with the changes in their holdings. For the majority of funds, it isn’t advantageous for us to know their moves as they might have churned their holdings many times over in a quarter. For the very successful value investors, however, the ones that buy a tiny handful of names each year, the 13F gives a good idea of their portfolio changes, and therefore their performance benchmarked to the market. These are the investors who walk slowly in order to run fast over the long-term.
Websites such as Whale Wisdom then download the data from the SEC and provide it to the public. You can access the data yourself on the SEC Edgar website, but its not very user-friendly. For the purpose of this blog I’ve concentrated on just holdings data, but there are all kinds of filings, such as top executives purchasing shares that can indicate changes in a company’s fortunes.
I would suggest www.gurufocus.com for countries in addition to the US. Many financial regulators worldwide require ownership disclosure from larger investors.
Whale Wisdom Backtest Results - All data from www.whalewisdom.com, accessed by me on January 3 2019
Berkshire Hathaway outperformance since 2001
WhaleWisdom Score outperformance
Over three years, the Whale Wisdom top scorers generated 58.6% versus 37.6% for the S&P total return
10-year return for most popular filers
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